We’ve all seen them, those extremely large college football pointspreads. Maybe USC is favored by 36 over some joke of a team. Or Florida is favored by 29 over Florida A&M. These games jump off the page right away just for the sheer size of the spread.
And yeah they nearly make you snicker because they’re such a joke, but what about really betting on these games where spreads can now and again make 40 points or more? Should you try to get down on a game with a spread this big?
The short response is no, but there are a number of reasons why. First of all, when you’re talking about spreads of this size that means you’re also talking about some REALLY bad teams. And we’ve all been there, but no one likes to have to root in a very bad team. One more sack allowed, an added turnover, an additional missed tackle, it’s like the movie ‘Groundhog Day,’ error after mistake.
A different trouble is there’s no real precedent to track. How can you decide if the team getting pounded will keep on working, playing tough to the final gun goes off, and trying to get that score that makes the number?
Now with the BCS involved, some schools will show no mercy because they’re trying to obtain those all- powerful points in the polls. You would believe that would increase even more later on in the season, right? Well even that theory isn’t a lock based on earlier performances.
And that’s my final and perhaps most imperative point. The statistical facts doesn’t validate taking either side in these lopsided games. Looking at the data we could only get hold of one instance where teams covered with a winning betting percentage [http://www.squidoo.com/bettingpercentage] over 53%. With a break-even point of 52.7%, that’s hardly enough to motivate assurance.
My counsel: stay away from the Giant NCAA Pointspread!
All the best,
Rich Allen – aka Sports Betting Professor