In Football Betting – Are the Punters Betting Against the Bookmakers?

Most punters believe they are betting against the bookmakers. In fact, they are betting against their fellow bettors. This is represented by the fluctuations of the odds.

Why do odds change? Odds constantly change on an outcome in a particular game in response to:

* number of bets and

* amount of money staked

This is why you can see odds around 2.10 in the morning and get only 1.90 later in the day. For example, if $1000 is staked on Home win, the price for Away win will then go up to make the Away team more attractive for the punters to bet. Through the adjustment of the odds according to the market conditions, the bookmakers’ objective is to balance their books for that event.

Bookmakers do not gamble. They charge a certain percentage of margin for each bet and as long as their books are balanced, they win irrespective of the match outcome. The bookmakers set the odds according to demand and supply to balance the action from all sides and because of the margin, they always win.

In the event a bookmaker could not balance his books through odds fluctuations, he will then reduce his risk by transferring some amount of the bets wagered to other bookmakers that have odds better than his own. This is known in the industry as ‘farming out’. Thus, besides the punters, sometimes the bookmakers also trade on the betting exchanges to balance their books.

If the imbalance of money staked in an event is too great, for example, due to rumor of fixed matches, etc, the bookmakers may remove the event altogether.

So the punters are betting against each other. This means when punter Mr A wins in an event, his win is actually paid for by losing punter Mr B.

This cast the bookmaker in the role of a broker who takes commission on the market and funds the winners from the losing bets.

Betting Tips – Getting Them Right

Did you just hear your neighbor talk about how much money he has made recently with football betting tips? There sure was a lot of money won and lost in the football world cup and that was not entirely by the football players. People like your neighbor and friends made a lot of money using soccer tips. A lot of websites talk about helping you with the right betting tips. But you need to choose the right one carefully. Here is some help.

Are these bet tipsters reliable?

A lot depends on where you source your betting tips from. Many fraudsters and cheat companies abound the Internet and are out to deceive people of their hard-earned money. But you also find a number of trustworthy sites that offer you the services of professional tipsters who know what they are talking about.

Finding tips

It is easy to find betting tips for football, baseball, American football, basketball, hockey as well as UK and IRE Horse Racing. But it is always advisable to start with one sport and then go on to the others. Before you place your bets, verify if the company you are dealing with is genuine. Since tipsters sell betting advice through the company’s website, it is important that you analyze the tips before placing your bets.

Beware of money swindlers

It is easy to get carried away with all the betting advice that comes your way. The right thing to do is to follow only verified tipsters who give professional tips for the sports you enjoy. Moreover, you also need to remember you are paying only for the betting tips and not to bookmakers who are trying to make money out of you.

Understanding the tipsters’ pattern

Often while following betting tips, you must make sure you understand the tipster’s pattern to help you win from your bets. Since this can take some time, you should ideally start by placing bets of smaller amounts. As you understand the tip pattern better and your confidence increases, you can also gradually increase the money you place in bets.

Another important thing to remember is to never cross your limits when it comes to betting. Whether pro tipsters or professional tipsters, you know they are still giving you the tips with a lot of caution. You need to exercise the same kind of caution while following these betting tips. After all, even betting on various sports results requires good money management. So, follow your tipster, place your bets and make your money! There’s no stopping you!

Simple Secret of Football Betting

The Football Betting World

The sports football which is better known as soccer in America is one of the most popular sports in the world. Covering from South America, Africa, Asia to Europe, football is a game loved by everyone ranging from kids to adults. The game brings huge and deep influence to a person’s life. It makes the fans become silly and crazy especially in World Cup tournament.

The popularity of football had created various commercial values. Among of them, football betting is one of the most prosperous industrial seeded from the football game. Winning a bet is not easy at all. Since the very beginning, bookies are always the ultimate winners. However, some minority punters were able to shine in their football betting career. The secrets behind them are self-control in first place and a simple team performance analysis method.

The Secrets

In order to reign a football betting, punters must self-control. Punters must not be addicted towards betting whenever they lose several matches they bet. Bet only on matches that meet your analyzed criteria. Each and every punter will has his match analysis methods and will evolved from time to time. The final decision will always be influenced by latest news, odds movement and comments from others. In fact, there are no proven formula that will really works. A working formula means it will never change and can be applied to all matches as generic guidelines. Nothing will be able to turn the decision table around when this formula is applied.

One of the most effective but simple formula to win in football betting is team performance analysis method. Firstly, punters will need to focus on top teams in every domestic league. For example Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Inter Milan, AC Milan, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Lyon and Bordeaux. Those teams are most probably rank on top at the end of each season. It means to say, betting on highly rank teams surely increases your winning chances. Base on statistics over the last 5 years, the top teams shall continue to win and clear handicap when they are on form or during bounce back. In contrast, the top teams shall keep losing when they are in a losing streaks. Base on this, punter is advised to put his bet only when the top teams on form or when they would just bounce back on track. The biggest mistake in football betting is chasing a team in streak loses to bounce back.

In retrospect, try to avoid match between giants. Bet only when your favorable top teams are playing against smaller teams. The secret of winning is just as simple as it is. You can beat the bookies right now if you can do all above.

What Are the Odds of Winning the Football Pools?

Winning the football pools on a regular basis seems like a dream (or pure fancy) to many people. It can be done though, if you have a system. How can you work the odds? It’s a question that a lot of people ask!

Let’s look at the basic odds. With a coupon of 49 matches (games), we are looking to identify a winning line of 8 score draws on the British treble chance pools if we are to win a 1st Dividend (a score draw or SD is a result in which both teams end up with the same number of goals, not zero). If we stake on 1 line only (nobody does, but leave that aside for now), then the odds of selecting the correct 8 matches from 49 are approximately 450 million to 1. With the UK lottery the odds are 14 million to 1 for a six number combination, by comparison.

If we stake 45,000 lines in an entry, then that reduces the odds (on a purely random basis), to about 10,000 to 1. That’s getting a whole lot better. Now, there are complications. There will not always be 8 SD results on a given coupon, and sometimes there may be as many as 15 or even more. During the latter part of 2009, the number of drawn matches (both SD and no-score draw) varied between 12% (1 no score and 5 score draws) and 38% (5 no-score and 13 SDs) of the coupon. The maximum number of score draws during that 12 week period was 14. See the accompanying chart.

Let’s take a week on which there are 13 score draws as an example. With 13 such draws, there are 1,287 possible combinations of the 8 needed for a 1st Dividend. This helps our odds considerably – 10,000 to 1 becomes 7.77 to 1 (ok, 8 to 1 to keep it simple). That’s with a random selection of our 45,000 lines.

Now, just suppose that football teams play to form (not always or consistently true), but let’s say that we can predict draw games with 60% accuracy within our selections. This means that we are 20% better on the odds (10% edge above 50% random). So, odds of 8 to 1 now become 6.4 to 1 (or 13/2 if we were betting on horses). There are other ways of sharpening the odds in our favour, and a lot more to working a system, but I hope that this article has given you a flavour!

(c) Phil Marks 2009